Ronen Bergman has written a superb, lengthy article for the New York Times entitled: Will Israel attack Iran? During his in-depth research he has interviewed senior Israeli politicians including Ehud Barak, as well as chiefs of the military and intelligence.
His research sweeps back over the decades. It even includes a dramatic secret briefing from the Mossad. He considers every factor, dimension and perspective, and concludes: ‘I have come to believe that Israel will indeed strike Iran in 2012.’
If you’re at all interested in the Iranian nuclear issue, read Bergman’s article. I’d love to know what you think of it.
There is an interesting and lengthy article by Barry Rubin in rubinreports.blogspot.com which argues that Israel has no intention of striking Iran.
Thanks, I assume you mean this one: http://www.rubinreports.blogspot.com/2012/01/israel-is-not-about-to-attack-iran-and.html
“Will Israel attack Iran?”
NO !!!
They cannot fly that far and return without refueling and no Arab State would allow that.
Yes, I’ve heard that.
In Bergman’s article he *seems* to be saying that they could refuel in the air:
If it attacked Iran, because of the 1,000 or so miles between its bases and its potential targets, Israeli planes would have to refuel in the air at least once (and more than once if faced with aerial engagements).
I’m no expert on refuelling processes though!
Chas
I am no expert either. However, my husband is ex-military, British Army and he keeps himself pretty much abreast with what’s happening in the world, militarily-wise. He doesn’t seem to think that Israel the capabilities for mid-air refuelling. When they carried out the raid in Entebbe, they refuelled in Kenya. As a ‘by the way’ one of my cousins was on that mission.!!
However, I just did a search. This is last year 01/21/2011
http://www.jpost.com/Defense/Article.aspx?id=204626
“Bracing for a possible confrontation with Iran, the IAF is set to receive a major boost to its long-range capabilities later this month with the expected arrival of a Boeing 707 that will be converted into a midair refueling tanker.
The air force bought the plane several months ago and it will be sent to Israel Aerospace Industries, where it will be reconfigured.”
Ok..assuming they can. Get your atlas out, it’s one hell of a flight, and bear in mind the refuelling plane also needs long range capabilities.
They need to fly south. Over the Gulf of Aqaba, South over the Red Sea. “Take a left” at Aden and fly NE over the Arabian Sea to the Gulf of Oman. Reportedly the nuclear facilities are in the north of the country.
That is one hell of a long flight and I think it’ll take more than just one refuelling exercise. They will have to refuel before entering Iranian air space too, so they have enough fuel to fly out again.
I also read somewhere a few days ago, that even the US ‘Bunker Buster’ bomb may not be capable of taking out the facility
There’s an awful lot of ‘ifs and buts’ here. I also heard that the sanctions are beginning to have an effect.
So who knows. One thing I do know is that Israel is not stupid enough to announce their plans or their date of departure !
Thanks for the info – and kol hakovod to your cousin!
Todah rabah
I’ll be in Israel in a few weesk I’ll tell him.!!
Take a look at what ‘Carl in Jerusalem’ has to say on the subject over at “Israel Matsav”
http://israelmatzav.blogspot.com/2012/01/israel-believes-iran-is-bluffing.html
Russia refuses to exert pressure on Iran to stop its nuclear weapons programme. There are about one million Russian-born Israelis. This speaks volumes about how much the Russian government cares for its people.
Shirly, Chas, we have subs (nuclear and regular) and missile why is everything is always planes with you…
just kidding but seriously why debate this in a blog, or indeed in the NYT? none of us are going to do it.
Because people are interested in politics and world affairs. You might have noticed?
Yuval……….
Firstly, it’s called general discussion.
Secondly, the nuclear faculty is buried deep in a mountain side, where a submarine can’t go
Thirdly, in this instance a rocket it no good.
The answer to your question depends not so much on Israel, but on the rest of the world.
If effective sanctions are put in place and if some nations which should know better stop cutting corners on that issue and allowing some companies to continue trading with Iran, there is a chance that all-out hostilities might be avoided.
If, however, the world in general continues to drag its feet, then Israel will have to do whatever is necessary to protect its civilians.
This is interesting – an Iranian view of the subject of sanctions. Starts off in Hebrew but then moves to English.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NNWDhpOPYIY
This was posted a short while ago
US bunker busters can’t destroy Iranian nuke plants
The United States has concluded that its existing bunker busters are not capable of destroying Iran’s underground nuclear facilities, and it is seeking strong weapons.
http://israelmatzav.blogspot.com/2012/01/us-bunker-busters-cant-destroy-iranian.html
Haha !!
This just arrived from a friend in the US
http://video.foxnews.com/v/1418743713001/new-floating-base-in-the-middle-east
There was talk a while back about how the Saudis would look the other way if Israeli jets flew over their territory en route to Iran, and that increasingly close relations with Azerbaijan might provide options for escaping if for whatever reason, Israeli jets cannot escape to the south.
If both of those still apply, then it would make a strike far more feasible, even if the final outcome is still far from certain
Rob,
My husband was saying earlier, given that the US has military bases in Saudi Arabia, it would be no big deal for them, for their radar to ‘break down’!!
I don’t think the Saudis would give official sanction to Israel using their air space some how. The US has quite a good air corridor of their own.
Point is in all of this is up to the Big Chief in the White House and what he thinks is anyone’s guess.
What a fascinating but terrifying article. I suspect the Israelis are playing a very cagey game – publicly threatening and actively involved in the covert actions against the regime, it’s facilities and it’s personnel.
Taking it further, because of Iran’s aggressive stance, not just towards Israel but regarding it’s ambition to be the leader of the Muslim world, it has clearly put a good many middle eastern noses out of joint and some of those may have been involved with Israel in planning or taking action against the Iranian regime.
It was not a surprise to learn that Pakistan has been involved as well. It seems to be implicated in a whole range of unfriendly actions or lack of action with respect to the west. A country that cannot in any way be trusted and indeed you can rely on to double cross you.
What does seem clear is that if Iran gets the bomb, regardless of whether it does anything with it immediately, other middle eastern states will want to acquire nuclear weapons too, if only to match Iran. Once we get to that point, it is a short step to nuclear conflagration because with the fundamentalist influence that exists in Arab and Muslim states, it is only a matter of time until a government or a terror organisation decides to use their weaponry to make a point and it will then be the end of time.
I agree with the Israeli intelligence community that the overthrow of the regime is by far and away the best way to neuter the nuclear ambitions of the Ayatollahs and their government, but how will that happen and is there time?
Israel is a very small place – effective rockets launched from Iran, Gaza, Lebanon and Syria would be able to inflict damage to a civilian population that it may not be able to recover from.
Terrifying.
Well, geez, Ronen, if that’s true, shouldn’t you have kept it a secret ’til the deed was done???
What on earth has happened to the art of dicretion?
Well, it’s no secret that it’s on the cards.
And anyway, the figures who briefed him would have done so to lead him to report just such a conclusion.
I was at a talk last night by Colonel Richard Kemp, a great friend of Israel and a professional and hugely experienced soldier. In his opinion, Israel is quite capable of using the military option to cripple Iran’s nuclear ambitions for years, much lest months.
I would take his word against a NY Times article any time.
I’ve heard Kemp speak too.
He’s a great orator and has said many good things about Israel. There have been some question marks about the sources/veracity of things he’s said down the years. He’s also made some rather unsavoury remarks about the civilian populations of some of Israel’s neighbours, too.
Also, it is not a cas of him vs ‘a NY Times article’. The claim about Israel only being able to damage Iran’s capabilities for months quoted in the NY Times is from Rafi Eitan – one of the Mossad’s most experienced and respected operatives.
I’d say Mr Eitan is worth listening to on Israel’s security measures at least as much as – if not ahead of – Kemp. That said, we don’t need to choose one or the other. I find taking all these people’s statements with at least a pinch of salt is the way that works best for me!
Well I suppose that Kemp was saying what his audience wanted to hear, but I must admit it cheered me up somewhat after the NYT article.
I am constantly surprised by your knowledge of people and events in I/P – I read tons and attend as much as I can, but your grasp of the situation is really impressive Chas.
I read an interview by Rafi Eitan subsequently – he really does not think Israel is going to attack Iran, or so he says. If I were an Iranian I’d really be wondering what the hell was going on, which is probably exactly what Israel intends.